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    Consensus Forecasts
     

    The majority of consensus forecasts in ShareData™ are supplied by leading stockbrokers in South Africa. The following stockbroking firms (which research JSE shares) are currently contributors of forecasts:

    • Deutsche Securities (Pty) Ltd.
    • Investec Property Investments (Pty) Ltd.
    • Investec Securities Ltd.
    • JPMorgan Equities SA (Pty) Ltd.
    • Nedbank Capital (Pty) Ltd.
    • Rencap Securities (Pty) Ltd.
    • SBG Securities (Pty) Ltd.
    • UBS South African (Pty) Ltd.

    Forward Price Projections

    We calculate a forward price vector based on the best and worst earnings estimates for the company, using either the historical P/E of the share or the sector. It is important to realise that this projection is in no way a prediction of where we or anybody else believes the share price is going. It is simply a calculation which says, “If this earnings estimate comes true, and if the share enjoys this historical P/E, then this is where it will trade”. Both the future earnings of the share and its future rating (or P/E) lie at the heart of the investment decision, and this is where the investor has to take a view. ShareData Online simply provides an illustration of one possible range of outcomes.

    You will notice that the forward price projections are based on either the historical share P/E or the historical index P/E, and over anything from three months to two years. The algorithm used to determine these variables uses the historical P/E of the share provided this is within 200% of the average index P/E. If the share’s P/E is too high, the program uses the index P/E. The rationale for this is that very high ratings are difficult to sustain, and tend, over time, to move back towards the index average.

    Historical P/E Range

    The Historical P/E Range chart shows the P/E stability for each share over five years based on year-end data.
    The highest and lowest P/Es (as calculated by ProfileData) for each of the last five years are extracted from the ShareData™ database. The chart shows the average P/E and the average high and low. This enables you to see the volatility of a company's P/E and the extent to which the P/E range stays within the five year historical averages.

    From an interpretative point of view, this chart helps you form an opinion about the reliability of forward price projections – the more stable the historical P/E range, the more likely that forward price projections can be relied upon.


    Profile Group (Pty) Ltd. has taken care in preparing all information on this website, but does not accept any liability for errors or out-of-date information.
    Other Profile Group sites: FundsData Online (unit trust data) | Profile's Financial Markets | Profile Group corporate site
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