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Thu 28 Aug 2025
Close: 19 169c 
Day's move: 411c (2.19%)
Volume: 2 924 995
Trades: 9 654
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Net interest income rose to R36.3 billion (R35.3 billion) whilst total income grew to R56.5 billion (R53.7 billion). Operating income before operating expenditure increased to R49.3 billion (R45.4 billion). Profit attributable to ordinary equity holders was higher at R11.2 billion (9.8 billion). Furthermore, headline earnings per share improved to 1 431.6 cents per share (1 228.4 cents per share).
Interim ordinary dividend number 76
An ordinary dividend of 785 cents per ordinary share was declared on 18 August 2025, for the interim reporting period ended 30 June 2025.
Group prospects
The global economic environment is likely to remain very uncertain, largely due to the sweeping and volatile changes being announced by the US administration. That said, as of early August global forecasters have cautiously upgraded their world GDP forecasts compared to forecasts just after the first tariff announcements were made in the first quarter. The IMF forecasts global GDP growth of 3.0% for 2025, rising to 3.1% in 2026. Compared to 2024 outcomes, it forecasts significantly slower growth for the US, for China’s slowdown to be larger in 2026 than in 2025, and for EU growth to be largely unaffected by trade tensions. Financial markets expect the US Federal Reserve to recommence a cutting cycle before the end of 2025 and to reduce the policy rate further into 2026, while monetary policy conditions across other major economies that reduced rates earlier in the year are likely at or near their trough.
For South Africa, we have reduced our 2025 GDP growth forecast somewhat. Given the weak start to the year and the negative impact of the US trade tariffs, we expect the economy to grow just 0.9% in 2025. Continued focus on structural reform and the lagged impact of lower rates are expected to enable GDP growth to improve to 1.4% in 2026. Although inflation is likely to increase during the second half of 2025, the rise is not expected to place undue further pressure on consumers, or cause the Reserve Bank to raise rates, even as the MPC seeks to gain credibility for its push to a 3% preference rate for inflation. Prime is likely to remain unchanged well into 2026, while financial markets are pricing in an even chance for a further 25bp reduction over the coming months.
Our baseline forecast for our Africa region countries is that GDP will rise slightly to 4.8% in 2025 and 5.1% in 2026. Botswana is an outlier, where we expect a second year of contraction. Although heightened global uncertainties have increased downside risks for all our markets, lower inflation and policy rates, ongoing infrastructure investment, favourable weather conditions, multilateral support and a strong focus on reform across the region continue to support the longer-term outlook.
Based on these assumptions, and excluding further major unforeseen political, macroeconomic, or regulatory developments, our guidance for 2025 is largely unchanged and as follows: We expect mid-single digit revenue growth, with stronger growth in non-interest income than net interest income. We expect mid- to high single digit customer loan growth and mid-single digit customer deposit growth.
The Group’s credit loss ratio is expected to improve to the top end of our through-the-cycle target range of 75 to 100bps.
We expect mid-single digit growth in operating expenses, producing a slightly higher cost-to-income ratio from the 53.2% in 2024 and low to mid-single digit growth in pre-provision profit.
Consequently, we expect an RoE of around 15%, from 14.8% in 2024. Other reserves have increased our equity more than we expected, reducing our RoE while supporting our NAV.
We expect the Group CET 1 ratio to finish 2025 at the top end of our Board target range of 11.0% to 12.5%. We expect to maintain a dividend payout ratio of around 55% for 2025.
We expect a weaker Rand to underpin earnings slightly in 2025, and Africa regions earnings growth should be noticeably stronger than South Africa.
Finally, we reiterate our RoE target of 16% for 2026.
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| Closing price data source: JSE Ltd. All other statistics calculated by ProfileData. |
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