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The forecast graph shows, where possible, the share price over the last five years relative to its index. In addition, it shows the share’s historical P/E, a moving average, and a forward projection of the share’s price based on historical P/Es and consensus forecast earnings. Weekly closing prices are used where more than three years data is available. For less than three years daily data is used.
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The example above shows the elements of each graph. The thick black
line is the daily or weekly closing price of the share (left hand scale).
The thick
green line is the movement of the
sector index. The thin
blue line is a moving average, and the
thin
pink line is the share’s P/E (right
hand scale). Note that the relative index is adjusted to start at the same
point as the share price, and the index scale is not shown.
The share price projections are based on the forward price calculations
found below the consensus figures. The top (purple) line represents the
potential price if the highest earnings estimate is achieved and the share
enjoys a high rating (ie, high P/E, high earnings estimate). The bottom
turquoise line shows the potential price if the worst case earnings estimate
comes true and the share suffers a poor rating (ie, low P/E, low estimate).
Please note that these projections are not a prediction of future share prices, only an illustration of the possible price at historic P/E levels if earnings estimates prove to be true.
These graphs are updated weekly subject to availability of forecasts from contributing stockbroking firms. |