| Thu 20 Mar 2008, 10:44 | | INL / INP - Investec Limited / Investec Plc - Pre-close briefing |
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INL INP
INL INP
INL / INP - Investec Limited / Investec Plc - Pre-close briefing
Investec Limited
Incorporated in the Republic of South Africa
Registration number 1925/002833/06
JSE share code: INL
ISIN: ZAE000081949
Investec Plc
Incorporated in England and Wales
Registration number 3633621
JSE share code: INP
ISIN: GB00B17BBQ50
Investec plc - pre-close briefing
20 March 2008
Balanced business model supports earnings growth in challenging market
environment
As previously announced, Investec is today hosting an investor pre-close
briefing at 9:00 (GMT) (11:00 South African time) which will focus on
developments within the group`s core business areas in the second half of the
current financial year ending 31 March 2008.
Overall group performance commentary
Although the financial year has not yet ended, we are pleased to report at this
point that we are on track to deliver solid growth in operational earnings. Our
strategy of maintaining a balanced business model both operationally and
geographically has stood the group in good stead over the period.
Operating fundamentals across the group have been impacted by the global credit
and capital market crisis and volatile equity markets. Trading conditions have
steadily weakened in the five months since our half year end and most notably in
the first quarter of 2008. This has resulted in a decline in activity levels
particularly within our UK and Australian operations. Nevertheless, we expect
our second half operating profit to be higher than that recorded in the first
half of the year. These results are supported by a strong performance in South
Africa and lower capital market write downs in the UK. The Australian business
should deliver good growth in profitability over the year albeit that second
half results are expected to be lower than in the first half of the year.
Since 31 March 2007 core loans and advances have grown by 28.4% to GBP12.8
billion, customer deposits grew by 18.2% to GBP11.1 billion and third party
assets under management increased by 2.8% to GBP55.8 billion supporting good
growth in net interest income, fees and commissions.
As indicated previously, the group assesses its performance against five key
growth and financial return objectives (namely EPS growth, ROE, dividend cover,
cost to income and capital adequacy ratios). We expect to comfortably meet all
these targets in the current financial year other than our stated earnings per
share objective (i.e. growth in adjusted EPS of 10% in excess of the UK retail
price index).
Disciplined risk and capital management remains a key focus. We have seen an
increase in defaults and impairments given the current market environment but
these are still moderate in relation to our balance sheet size and level of
profitability. We have successfully implemented Basel II on the standardised
approach and are comfortably meeting these new requirements. We continue to hold
surplus cash and near cash of approximately GBP5 billion and our balance sheet
remains sound.
The sale of our South African property fund management and property
administration business to Growthpoint Properties Limited was approved by the
Competition Tribunal of South Africa on 18 October 2007. A non-operating
exceptional gain of approximately GBP85 million was made on the sale of these
businesses.
We have made good progress on the integration of the Kensington Group into our
Capital Markets division. We have made a preliminary assessment of the carrying
value of the goodwill arising on the acquisition. Considering that new business
has deliberately been reduced and there is limited activity in the
securitisation markets we expect to impair the goodwill by between GBP50 million
and GBP60 million. The Kensington business remains profitable with annualised
earnings in line with the first half of the year. We will continue to realign
the business in order to maintain a robust business model that can respond
quickly when market conditions change.
Business commentary
Salient features of the operating performance of our core business areas are
listed below and further details will be provided in the briefing presentation
which can be viewed on our website.
Private Banking
* Since 31 March 2007:
* The loan portfolio has increased 34.6% to GBP9.2 bn
* Total deposits have increased 21.5% to GBP6.8 bn
* Total funds under advice have increased 50.7% to GBP3.8 bn
* Very strong performance in South Africa driven by higher levels of activity
and a good performance from Growth and Acquisition Finance
* Lower levels of activity in UK and Australia
Private Client Portfolio Management and Stockbroking
* Since 31 March 2007:
* Total funds under management (South African and UK) have decreased by
0.4% to GBP21.8 bn. (Including GBP14.4bn relating to Rensburg
Sheppards plc - this information has not been updated since the last
reporting period)
* Total South African funds under management have increased 6.1% to
R112.0 bn
* Increased market volumes and higher asset levels continue to drive
performance
Capital Markets
* Core loans and advances have increased 33.7% to GBP3.8 bn since 31 March
2007
* Strong deal activity in the South African lending and structuring areas
continues while trading activities benefit from heightened market
volatility
* UK - improved performance for the second half as write downs on US
structured credit investments significantly lower
* Australian business continues to deliver steady performance
* Principal Finance
* We continue to monitor and restructure US exposure in structured
credit investments
* As at 29 February 2008 the on-balance sheet value of the US portfolio
is GBP83 m of which GBP27 m is dependent on the performance of the US
sub-prime market
* Additional write down on US structured credit portfolio of GBP10 m
* Kensington
* Strategy to maintain platform remains:
* Overheads cut
* Tightened lending criteria
* Increased pricing
* Business volumes deliberately reduced - no new adverse business
* Activity in UK securitisation market remains limited
* Annualised profitability in line with first half of the year
* Warehouse lines of approximately GBP2 bn renewed for between 2 - 3
years to support current strategy
* We retain a net equity investment in the securitised mortgage
portfolio of approximately GBP75 m and exposures in third party
warehouse structures of approximately GBP130 m
* These investments would only be drawn against if excess spread earned
and retained by the portfolio structure is not sufficient to cover
costs and bad debts
* Average current LTV of 69.2%
* % accounts > 90 days in arrears increasing from 9.1% to 10.9% in line
with seasonal changes and seasoning of current book
Investment Banking
* Agency and Advisory
* Stable deal pipeline
* Direct Investments and Private Equity
* Profitability of South African Private Equity portfolio skewed to
first half due to timing of revaluations and cashflows
* South African Direct Investments weaker performance from some of the
listed investments in line with weaker equity markets
* UK Direct Investments and Private Equity impacted by weaker
performance from some of the underlying investments
Asset Management
* Since 31 March 2007 assets under management have increased 1.0% to GBP30.2
bn
* Earnings growth continues to be enhanced by the momentum of UK and
international business
* Shift in institutional fund mix driving higher earnings
* Solid long term investment performance
* Significantly widened distribution reach
Property Activities
* Strong performance of investment property portfolio in second half
* The sale of our South African property fund management and property
administration business to Growthpoint Properties Limited ("Growthpoint")
was approved by the Competition Tribunal of South Africa on 18 October 2007
* The purchase consideration was satisfied by the issue of new Growthpoint
linked units
* Furthermore, as announced on 6 November 2007 Investec disposed of
152,473,544 Growthpoint linked units, representing its entire shareholding
in Growthpoint, inter alia monetising the proceeds on the disposal of the
property administration and property fund management businesses
Other Activities
* Central Funding benefiting from:
* Hedging of preferred securities issued by a subsidiary of Investec plc
from Euros into Pounds (equal and opposite impact in minorities)
* Strong performance from realisation of investments in South African
portfolio offset by negative mark to market movements on some of the
residual investments - we expect a net gain of approximately R200 m
* Central Costs
* Marginally up on previous year
Other information
Goodwill and non-operating items
* Impairment of goodwill arising on the acquisition of Kensington expected to
be between GBP50 m and GBP60 m - will be offset by a non-operating
exceptional gain of approximately GBP85 m on the sale of the South African
property management and administration business to Growthpoint
Additional aspects
* Effective tax rate: expected to be approximately 26%
* Increase in earnings attributable to minorities: largely due to translation
of preferred securities issued by a subsidiary of Investec plc (transaction
is hedged)
* Weighted number of shares in issue for the year to 31 March 2008 expected
to be approximately 606 m
Capital and liquidity
* We have implemented Basel II and have significant capital in excess of
minimum regulatory requirements
Expected capital adequacy Expected capital
ratios (excluding op adequacy ratios
risk) (incl op risk)
Investec plc 16.0% 14.1%
Investec Limited 14.5% 13.1%
* As at 18 March 2008 we held substantial cash and near cash around the world
* Southern Africa: R46.1 bn
* UK and Europe: GBP1.8 bn
* Australia: A$ 0.8 bn
Asset quality
* Continued strong focus on asset quality and credit risk in all geographies
* We do expect an increase in impairments and defaults in light of weak
economic conditions, particularly in Private Bank (UK and South Africa) and
Capital Markets (South Africa)
* We expect gross defaults as % of core loans and advances to increase
marginally
Notes:
1 Key trends set out above, unless stated otherwise, relate to the eleven
months ended 29 February 2008, and compare the first half of the financial
year (1H08) to the second half of the financial year (2H08)
2 Please note that matters discussed in the briefing and highlighted above
may contain forward looking statements which are subject to various risks
and uncertainties and other factors, including, but not limited to:
- the further development of standards and interpretations under
International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) applicable to past,
current and future periods, evolving practices with regard to the
interpretation and application of standards under IFRS.
- domestic and global economic and business conditions.
- market related risks.
* A number of these factors are beyond the group`s control.
* These factors may cause the group`s actual future results, performance or
achievements in the markets in which it operates to differ from those
expressed or implied.
* Any forward looking statements made are based on the knowledge of the group
at today`s date.
3 Our reporting currency is Pounds Sterling. Certain of our operations are
conducted by entities outside the UK. The results of operations and the
financial condition of our individual companies are reported in the local
currencies in which they are domiciled, including Rands, Australian Dollars
and Euros. These results are then translated into Pounds Sterling at the
applicable foreign currency exchange rates for inclusion in our combined
consolidated financial statements. In the case of the income statement, the
weighted average rate for the relevant period is applied and, in the case
of the balance sheet, the relevant closing rate is used. The following
table sets out the movements in certain relevant exchange rates against
Pounds Sterling over the period:
Year to date 29 Feb 2008 30 Sept 2007 31 March 2007
Currency per Close Ave Close Ave Close Ave
GBP1.00
South African Rand 15.24 14.18 13.98 14.21 14.20 13.38
Australian Dollar 2.13 2.33 2.30 2.39 2.42 2.47
Euro 1.31 1.43 1.43 1.47 1.47 1.47
Presentation details
The briefing starts at 9:00 (GMT) (11:00 South African time) and will be
broadcast live via video conference from the group`s offices in Johannesburg to
London. The briefing will also be available via a live and recorded telephone
conference call, a live and delayed video webcast, a delayed podcast and a
delayed Mp3. Further details in this regard can be found on the website at:
www.investec.com
Timetable:
Year end: 31 March 2008
Release of year end results: 15 May 2008
For further information please contact:
Investec Investor Relations
UK: +44 (0) 207 597 5546
South Africa: +27 (0) 11 286 7070
investorrelations@investec.com
About Investec
Investec is an international specialist banking group that provides a diverse
range of financial products and services to a niche client base in three
principal markets, the United Kingdom, South Africa and Australia as well as
certain other countries. The group was established in 1974 and currently has
approximately 6 300 permanent employees.
Investec focuses on delivering distinctive profitable solutions for its clients
in five core areas of activity namely, Private Client Activities, Capital
Markets, Investment Banking, Asset Management and Property Activities.
In July 2002 the Investec group implemented a dual listed company structure with
listings on the London and Johannesburg Stock Exchanges. Management and staff
own approximately 15% of the equity share capital of the group. The combined
group`s current market capitalisation is approximately GBP2.1bn.
Date: 20/03/2008 10:44:48 Produced by the JSE SENS Department.
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