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Mon 17 Nov 2003, 10:43 Kumba to decide on mine
KUMBA Resources' Sishen South iron ore project, in the Northern Cape, which some expected would be approved for development this year, could be put on hold because of the strong rand. 

Anglo Platinum is widely expected to announce that it has scaled down its expansion projects later this month as a result of the strong local currency. Diamond company De Beers is carrying out a review of its operations in SA. Both companies have said they may cut jobs. 

"With the rand so strong some projects will be affected," said Kumba spokesman Pat Mdoda on Friday. 

"One way or another the project (Sishen South) is going to be affected." 

Kumba is country's largest iron ore producer, exporting about 20-million tons a year as well as supplying the domestic market. 

The cost of developing the Sishen South mine is put at R2bn and, once productive, the mine is expected to produce about 9-million tons of iron ore a year. 

On Friday Anglo opened its R37 a share offer to Kumba's minority shareholders. Anglo, which is keen to add iron ore to its product mix, has increased its stake in Kumba to more than 35%. 

In doing so the company was compelled to make a mandatory offer to Kumba's shareholders. The offer will close on November 28 . 

This process and the uncertainty about who will be controlling Kumba by the end of the year could also lead to uncertainty about the timing of a decision to develop Sishen South. 

Anglo has an agreement with government that it will cap its stake in Kumba at 49%. This is why it has offered such a low premium to Kumba minorities. 

Analysts have said this leaves the Kumba board with a bit of a dilemma. The board has to decide how it will react to the Anglo offer and what recommendation it will make to its shareholders. 

This is a difficult call for the company, say analysts. There is a belief that the offer is too low, but since Anglo only wants to attract about 14% of Kumba's minorities to reach the desired 49%, it is unlikely to increase the offer. 

There is also the possibility that, if taken up, the offer could bring Anglo's stake in Kumba well beyond 49%. 

If Anglo obtained permission to hold a higher stake and given that the Industrial Development Corporation has a 14% stake it intends to hold on to, Kumba's liquidity could be severely crimped. 

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