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Sappi is marked down by another ratings agency -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Pulp and paper giant Sappi has taken another blow, with global credit ratings agency Standard & Poor's (S&P) revising its outlook on the group to "negative" from "stable". At the same time, however, the agency has affirmed its BBB long-term and A-3 short-term credit ratings on the group. Although Sappi's balance sheet remains strong, S&P credit analyst Alf Stenqvist cites the group's weakening cash flows as a result of continued depressed coated fine paper markets and the possibility of a prolonged market downturn as reasons for the downgrade. In a statement released last Thursday, Stenqvist said these factors could delay a recovery in the group's financial profile. Last month ratings agencies Moody's and Global Credit Rating (GCR) made similar pronouncements. Moody's placed Sappi under review for a possible downgrade over concern about the group's ability to pay its debt, while GCR put the rating "on watch". Moody's said there was limited visibility for a material upturn in paper demand. It also raised concern about the weak performance of Sappi's US operations and the lack of a sustainable turnaround. GCR cited the protracted trough in demand for Sappi's products as one of the main reasons for placing Sappi's ratings on watch alert. Sappi says the revised outlook from S&P confirms what it said in its recent results announcement, and reflects the tough conditions in the paper market. Head of corporate affairs André Oberholzer says although the debt outlook has been downgraded S&P's affirmation of the actual rating confirmed the underlying strength of the company. Oberholzer says although cash flow has weakened, the group is still cash generative. "We're still earning cash whereas that's not the case for a lot of others in the industry. There is a weakening, but it's not marked," he says. Oberholzer says the group is scheduled to meet with Moody's in the next month or two to answer some of its concerns. It seems that not everyone agrees on the state of the global paper industry and Sappi's position in it. Merrill Lynch has upgraded Sappi from "neutral" to "buy" with a 12-month price objective of R120 a share from its current R87,90. In a recently published report, analyst Nico Lambrechts says the cyclical outlook and demand for coated wood-free paper in the US and Europe is improving. He says the paper sector and coated wood-free paper have lagged price rises in other commodities. In January, Sappi announced price rises of 5%-7% in Europe from April. Other top European paper manufacturers have announced price increases as well. But Lambrechts says the major risk to Sappi is if the European coated woodfree price increases are not successfully implemented. Business Day

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