Hot on the heels of Old Mutual, from which it is winning market share locally, Liberty Life is expected to report solid first-half earnings growth on Wednesday.
Analysts say Liberty Life is the industry leader in new business volumes - though some say Metropolitan, which reports its interims on September 8, could outstrip it. Steered by a trading update, analysts expect Liberty Life to report earnings-a-share growth comfortably above 20%.
Citigroup Smith Barney analyst Johny Lambridis says: `In a tough new business environment that has prevailed for South African life assurers over the last one-and-a-half years, Liberty has been able to steadily increase its market share.
`On our estimates, Liberty is currently the largest writer of individual life business in South Africa, and should increase or at least maintain its individual life market share in 2004.`
He forecasts a 27% leap in headline earnings to 165c - at the upper end of the 10% to 30% range indicated by Liberty Life.
However, on the assumption that there will be no strong recovery in equity markets in the second half, his full-year forecast of 380.4c remains below the I-Net Bridge consensus forecast.
Analysts will be watching to see whether chief executive Myles Ruck starts chiselling away at what some see as his life assurer`s surplus capital by declaring a special dividend - or whether he holds on to it to meet the capital adequacy requirements of a burgeoning new business flow and tighter reserving requirements.
The market is still digesting the implications of the R1.3-billion empowerment transaction with staff, the Tutuwa Consortium ( Saki Macozoma`s Safika Holdings and Cyril Ramaphosa`s Millennium Consolidated Investments) and a community trust.
If existing shareholders approve the deal to sell 10% of their company`s South African operations to the empowerment groupings, they will have to sell 9.4% of their stake at R48.50 a share - below its current level of R51.36.
Lambridis has a price target of R59.75 on the assumption the deal is approved.
If it goes ahead, it should reinforce Liberty`s attempts to break out of its high-end market segment.
Ruck is expected to provide an update on Liberty`s plans for tackling the middle and mass-market segments, which are still the preserve of its peers.
The next life assurer to report half-year results will be Sanlam, whose interims are expected on September 2.
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