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Fri 10 Oct 2025
Close: 18 574c 
Day's move: -676c (-3.51%)
Volume: 1 171 943
Trades: 5 273
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Revenue for the year rose to R13.0 billion (R12.9 billion) with gross loss ending on R190.0 million (profit of R877.0 million). Loss from operations before capital items was R567.0 million (profit of R76.0 million) with profit for the year attributable to equity holders of ARM falling to R330.0 million (R3.1 billion). Additionally, headline earnings per share dropped to 1 379c per share (2 591c per share).
Dividend declaration
For F2025, the board approved and declared a final dividend of 600 cents per share (gross) (F2024: 900 cents per share). The amount to be paid is approximately R1 252 million.
Company outlook
Global economic growth is projected to improve slightly for the remainder of 2025 and is projected to reach 3.1% in 2026, according to the International Monetary Fund (IMF). Softer inflation and improved financial conditions are helping to stabilise the growth momentum, but recovery is uneven across countries. Advanced economies are growing slowly owing to the lingering effects of tight monetary policy, while many emerging markets are constrained by debt burdens and weak investment. There are significant downside risks, including the possibility that effective tariff rates could rebound, which would lead to weaker growth. Elevated uncertainty and geopolitical tensions could also weigh on economic activity and disrupt global supply chains.
South Africa’s economic outlook is characterised by a mix of modest growth, persistent challenges and significant risks. The 2025 GDP growth forecast has been revised downwards to around 0.9%, largely attributable to ongoing issues with freight capacity and infrastructure. The South African Reserve Bank has been cautious with its monetary policy, making limited interest rate cuts despite a decline in inflation. The country faces various risks, including the potential for a rebound in US tariffs, which could negatively impact trade and growth, and exacerbate the already high unemployment rate. Nonetheless, positive developments, such as the implementation of structural reforms, have the potential to boost business and investor confidence and improve export capacity in the future.
There has been a positive shift in market sentiment for steel, driven by the new hydropower project in China and the expectation of increased government spending to support economic growth. However, this optimism is tempered by the anticipation of cuts in China’s steel production later in the year. China’s iron ore imports are expected to decrease slightly this year but are anticipated to recover over the next few years. In the medium term, the Simandou Mine in Guinea is projected to significantly increase global supply, which will likely lead to a decline in iron ore prices.
The PGM market has seen strong sales in the first half of the year, especially in China and North America. The imposition of US tariffs poses a risk to PGM prices for the remainder of the year, however, this could be partially mitigated by a renewed interest in internal combustion engines in the US market.
The coal market has shifted from the tight market conditions of 2022 to being in oversupply in 2025, driven by weaker oil and gas demand, increased nuclear restarts in Japan, renewable energy growth in Asia and strong Chinese exports. This has led to higher inventories and falling prices. A material rebound in prices is not expected before 2027. The thermal coal market is likely to remain under pressure, with prices expected to hover near the bottom of the seaborne cost curve as market fundamentals offer minimal signs of a short-term recovery.
The manganese ore market has shifted from a period of tight supply and high prices to one of oversupply and weak demand. Supply disruptions and strong demand drove prices up, but by late March 2024, increased shipments, a build-up in inventory, and a slowdown in steel and alloy demand, especially from China’s struggling construction sector, led to a sharp decline in prices. Market sentiment remains bearish, with production cuts and potential stimulus measures in China seen as key to rebalancing supply and restoring price stability.
Despite the ongoing commodity market volatility, ARM remains optimistic about the medium to long-term outlook for the mining sector. Encouraging signs of recovery in key markets, improving financial conditions, and infrastructure investment reinforce our view. With a portfolio of quality, long-life assets and world-class ore bodies, ARM is well-positioned to navigate the uncertain commodity and market environment. We continue to strengthen resilience by driving productivity, improving cost efficiency and optimising capital allocation. Our disciplined approach, including value-accretive corporate actions such as the Harmony hedge, share buyback, and disposal of the Cato Ridge complex, demonstrates our commitment to creating sustainable value for our shareholders and all stakeholders.
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| Closing price data source: JSE Ltd. All other statistics calculated by ProfileData. |
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