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Fri 6 Mar 2026
Close: 21 425c 
Day's move: -1 463c (-6.39%)
Volume: 411 641
Trades: 2 679
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Revenue for the interim period went up to R8.4 billion (2024: R6.4 billion). Profit from operations before capital items recovered to R1.9 billion (2024: loss of R409 million). Profit for the period attributable to equity holders of ARM rose to R2.4 billion (2024: R1.4 billion). Furthermore, headline earnings per share increased to 866 cents per share (2024: 775 cents per share).
Dividend declaration
ARM aims to pay ordinary dividends to shareholders in line with our dividend guiding principles. Dividends are at the discretion of the Board which considers the company’s capital allocation guiding principles as well as other relevant factors such as financial performance, commodities outlook, investment opportunities, gearing levels as well as solvency and liquidity requirements of the Companies Act.
For 1H F2026, the board approved and declared an interim dividend of 500 cents per share (gross) (1H F2025: 450 cents per share). The amount to be paid is approximately R1 044 million.
Company outlook
Global economic growth is expected to remain stable, with expansion projected at approximately 3.3% in 2026 and 3.2% in 2027, supported by strong technology-related investment, particularly in artificial intelligence (AI), alongside accommodative financial conditions and policy support. Global inflation is anticipated to decline gradually from 4.1% in 2025 to 3.4% by 2027, although inflation in the United States is expected to moderate more slowly than in other major economies. While the outlook remains broadly resilient, downside risks persist, including potential financial market corrections linked to changing expectations around AI productivity, rising trade, geopolitical tensions and elevated global debt levels.
The South African economic outlook remains cautiously positive despite persistent global uncertainties, including geopolitical tensions, elevated global debt levels and trade imbalances. Domestically, economic growth has shown improved stability, supported primarily by stronger household consumption, while investment activity is beginning to recover following previous weakness. Inflation has moderated significantly, supported by a stronger currency and lower oil prices. Structural reforms in energy, logistics and public sector efficiency remain critical to sustaining growth momentum, improving competitiveness and unlocking long-term economic potential.
Global iron ore markets are expected to remain well-supplied over the medium term, with shipments from Australia and Brazil remaining robust through 2026 and beyond. Global ex-China iron ore supply is projected to increase meaningfully, driven primarily by expansions from Rio Tinto, Vale and BHP, as well as growth in Indian supply and the anticipated ramp-up of Simandou from 2027. Chinese domestic iron ore supply is, however, expected to decline over the next five years, partially offsetting global supply growth. On the demand side, Chinese steel production continues to soften amid weaker domestic consumption and an increasing shift towards electric arc furnace steelmaking, which reduces iron ore intensity. Although iron ore demand outside China is expected to grow steadily, global demand growth is likely to remain modest. Elevated port inventories and expectations of a surplus market will likely place downward pressure on prices in the near term.
The manganese market is expected to remain influenced by supply normalisation following disruptions in recent years. Production from GEMCO has recovered following cyclone-related closures, contributing to increased global supply in the near term, while strong South African export performance continues to fuel supply growth. However, lower prices and currency strength are expected to place pressure on high-cost producers, particularly in South Africa. Demand remains subdued due to weaker Chinese steel production, although demand outside China is expected to grow steadily. Battery-related demand is anticipated to increase gradually over time, providing a modest additional source of consumption. While near-term market conditions suggest continued surplus supply, declining inventories and restocking activity could provide price support, with longer-term fundamentals supported by gradual demand growth.
The medium to long-term outlook for PGMs remains constructive, underpinned by resilient autocatalyst demand and structural supply constraints. Internal combustion engine and hybrid vehicle demand, particularly driven by exports of cost-competitive Chinese vehicles and evolving emissions standards, are expected to sustain PGM consumption. Plug-in hybrid vehicles are anticipated to provide incremental demand growth due to higher PGM loadings. While battery electric vehicle penetration continues to increase, it is expected to moderate rather than displace PGM demand in the medium term. Jewellery demand shows early signs of stabilisation, while investment demand remains supportive. On the supply side, mine production is expected to continue declining due to maturing ore bodies, operational challenges and disciplined capital allocation, with recycling providing the primary source of incremental supply growth. As a result, PGM markets are expected to remain structurally tight, with deficits likely to persist through the end of the decade, supporting a favourable, long-term pricing environment despite near-term volatility.
Global thermal coal markets remain influenced by policy developments in Indonesia, which are seeking to reduce production to support prices, conserve resources and prioritise domestic energy security. The proposed production cuts and stricter quota enforcement are expected to reduce export volumes materially, potentially tightening the seaborne coal market. Demand dynamics in key importing regions, particularly China and India, will also play a significant role in determining market balance. Substitution effects between coal grades may provide broader price support across the thermal coal complex, although sustained demand weakness could offset supply-side tightening.
Against this backdrop, the mining sector is expected to face continued market volatility, influenced by evolving commodity supply-demand dynamics, policy developments and global economic uncertainty. Notwithstanding these challenges, long-term demand fundamentals across several of ARM’s key commodities remain supportive. ARM’s focus on decisive action on underperforming assets, operating globally competitive and profitable mines, disciplined capital allocation, collaborating with key stakeholders to optimise logistics and infrastructure constraints, maintaining a robust balance sheet by generating profits, reducing costs and deferring non-essential capital expenditure and pursue value-enhancing growth opportunities will remain critical in navigating short-term pressures, while positioning ARM for long-term value creation for all stakeholders.
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| Closing price data source: JSE Ltd. All other statistics calculated by ProfileData. |
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